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When workplace experts predicted artificial intelligence would not kill jobs, but rather create demand for new (as-yet unknown jobs), they were probably using evidence of previous ‘big bangs’ in technology to guide their thinking.
The arrival of the internet, for example – the last great mass technology-based workplace transformation – has been branded by Deloitte as a “great job-creating machine” – responsible as it has now been for comprising America’s 4th-largest economic sector. McKinsey estimates the rise of personal computing and the Internet have seen just 3.5 million jobs disappear since 1980; compared to the 19 million jobs that have been created.
But worrying new evidence suggests the current AI-revolution is not quite working in quite the same way – and in particular, it is having a scything impact on ‘entry-level’ jobs.
New research by job-search site, Adzuna, reveals UK entry level roles have nose-dived by 32% since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, with Dario Amodei – CEO of AI developer, Anthropic – predicting that as many as 50% of all entry-level office jobs could be replaced by AI in just the next five years. This same trend has been mirrored in the US too, where job postings for entry-level roles have fallen by more than 35%. Global job postings for roles requiring 0–2 years of experience have also declined by an average of 29 percentage points since January 2024.
But this hollowing out of entry-level roles not only has big ramifications for job seekers themselves (people who are now unable to get their first foot in the door), but it is arguably storing up big problems for employers too.
When early-career routes shrink, organisations lose their future talent pipeline, which actually risks worsening skills shortages, and limits workforce diversity and social mobility
“I think what we’re seeing is a trend that has been brewing for a few years now,” observes Pauline Taylor, Head of People at learning platform, HowNow. “Most employees learn the workplace fundamentals in their first role, and if organisations are beginning to dispense with this, then they’re not going to be building up their own capability – people that are ready to get to the next level.” She adds: “We actually find that our entry level people are the most eager to learn, but if these roles are being more generally being replaced by those requiring two-three years experience – and people who are by then less hungry to learn – then they’ll be bringing in developmentally stagnant people into their company.”
Taylor makes a valuable point. Employers have long relied on first jobbers to come in, learn the ropes, build their skills, their confidence, and the specific competencies they need to become suitable for the next step up. Not having these is potentially a massive talent issue. So with an absence of ‘first rung’ jobs, how can organisations bring in and develop the people they need, and in a way they want that can feed into their talent pipelines for the roles they have higher up the ladder?
“There’s no doubt the automation of routine and administrative tasks has reduced the number of traditional starter roles that once acted as stepping stones into the workforce,” observes Michelle Carson, Chairwoman of talent advisory and executive search firm, Holmes Noble. “Under pressure to cut costs, organisations are also prioritising early-career talent who can ‘hit the ground running’, reducing investment in training. But,” she continues: “The impact is wider than frustrated applicants. When early-career routes shrink, organisations lose their future talent pipeline, which actually risks worsening skills shortages, and limits workforce diversity and social mobility.” She adds: “Cutting entry-level roles may look like a short-term saving, but the longer-term effect is to create bottlenecks which intensifies competition for an already limited pool of mid-career professionals.”
Hitting the floor running?
Generation Z it seems, are acutely aware of this issue themselves. In Randstad’s just published ‘The Gen Z Workplace Blueprint: Future-Focused; Fast Moving’ report, it identified that young job seekers are already noticing that the ladder they expected to see is now missing its first few rungs – with them left feeling like they’re increasingly expected to be ‘ready’ for higher-level roles from day one.
