CIPD study | 1 in 6 employers say AI will shrink headcount as hiring confidence remains at record low

One in six (17%) employers expect AI to shrink their workforce over the next year, with junior roles most at risk, according to the CIPD’s latest Labour Market Outlook which surveyed over 2,000 employers on their hiring, redundancy and pay plans. 

Of those, almost two thirds (62%) believe that clerical, junior managerial, professional or administrative roles are most likely to be lost because of AI. The risk is highest in large private sector firms, where one in four (26%) expect headcount to fall, compared with 17% in the private sector overall and 20% in the public sector. 

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Among those who expect headcount to reduce because of AI in the next 12 months, a quarter (26%) expect to lose more than 10% of their workforce.  

These findings highlight the need for urgent action to support people whose roles are most exposed to AI-driven changes to headcount- particularly those in early-career or lower-level professional roles, and industries including finance and insurance, IT and administrative and support services.