USA 
United Kingdom
Chief executives are continuing to bet heavily on artificial intelligence to drive growth in 2026, but organizations are still struggling to convert those investments into measurable gains, says new Gartner research.
The study found that only one in 50 AI investments deliver transformational value, while just one in five produces any measurable return on investment, a gap between expectation and performance that is shaping workforce planning decisions across industries.
Executive teams must balance immediate performance targets with preparing employees for long-term AI transformation, according to Gartner’s latest predictions for the year ahead.
AI layoffs and productivity expectations diverge
Layoffs attributed to artificial intelligence increased in 2025, but productivity gains tied directly to AI remain limited. Gartner's analysis shows that less than 1% of layoffs in the first half of 2025 resulted from AI increasing employee productivity.
Turning workforce data into early warnings for high-cost employees
Instead, many organizations are reducing headcount based on anticipated efficiency gains that may not materialize. If AI productivity improvements fail to keep pace with operational needs, companies may need to rehire workers at a higher cost to meet business targets.
HR leaders are expected to manage workforce size, structure, and skills carefully during what Gartner describes as the transition period between early AI adoption and technological maturity.
Cultural pressures may also intensify as organizations quietly raise expectations for employee performance without offering additional flexibility or support. This disconnect between stated values and daily workplace experience can lead to declining engagement, weaker performance, and employer brand damage.
Organizations that clearly communicate expectations around working hours, output, and location will be better positioned to meet performance goals in 2026.
Mental health, hiring, and security risks emerge
In addition, while artificial intelligence adoption is becoming nearly universal across organizations, its impact on employee well-being is receiving less attention. Gartner warns that prolonged generative AI use may contribute to cognitive atrophy, emotional strain, and what it describes as "AI psychosis".
Some 91% of CIOs and IT leaders say their organizations spend little or no time monitoring behavioral effects linked to AI use. The gap could create legal and performance risks if employees rely heavily on employer-provided AI tools.
Another emerging challenge is “workslop,” defined as low-quality AI-generated output that requires significant time to correct. Employees report spending nearly two hours addressing each instance, reducing productivity and limiting the financial value of AI investments.
Recruitment processes are also changing. A Gartner survey of nearly 3,300 candidates conducted in 2024 found only half believe the jobs they apply for are legitimate. Furthermore, Gartner estimates that by 2028, 25% of job candidates will be fake, fueled by AI-enabled application tools.
Forward-looking employers are expected to combine high-touch recruiting methods such as in-person events and experiential skills assessments with AI-driven hiring tools to maintain trust and candidate quality.
Workforce strategy shifts in the human-machine era
New career pathways are likely to emerge as digital workers seek roles less vulnerable to automation. Apprenticeship and retraining programs may help employees transition from technology roles into skilled trades, creating new talent pipelines while potentially leaving gaps in digital roles.
Organizations may also shift hiring priorities away from specialized AI talent toward process experts capable of redesigning workflows. Gartner found that business units that redesign work processes using AI are twice as likely to exceed revenue goals.
Questions about employee rights and compensation could also grow as digital twins and AI avatars become more common. Employees may begin seeking payment for training AI systems or for the continued use of their digital likeness.
As organizations weigh-up competing priorities in 2026, Gartner advises leaders to identify which AI workforce trends pose the greatest risk and opportunity for their organizations and focus resources accordingly.
