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Growing reliance on generative AI could undermine decision-making quality across organizations unless CHROs intervene early and accelerate learning and development, according to new Gartner research.
The advisory firm predicts that by 2030, 30% of businesses will experience declining decision-making quality because of overdependence on AI, particularly among less experienced employees.
Gartner said the shift places pressure on HR leaders to accelerate learning and experience development for early career talent in order to sustain performance and protect future leadership pipelines. Kaelyn Lowmaster, Director of Research in the Gartner HR practice, said the impact of AI on jobs is uneven and depends heavily on role design and experience levels.
“It’s not a clear yes/no answer,” Lowmaster said, noting that employees should be aware of AI’s potential impact. She cited an August 2025 Gartner survey of 114 HR leaders showing that more than one in four organizations have already redefined job roles or required skills due to AI and emerging technologies.
Which roles face the greatest GenAI exposure
To help CHROs assess where AI may create the greatest risk, Gartner has developed a framework that categorizes employees by experience and reliance on judgment. Early career workers in judgment-heavy roles, labeled “protégés,” face particular challenges because they may struggle to evaluate the quality of AI outputs.
By contrast, “maestros” are experienced experts using AI to enhance complex work, while “keystones” are less experienced employees in support roles who can improve execution with AI assistance. Lastly, “stewards” are experienced workers in more routine roles seeking efficiency gains. Lowmaster said AI can benefit some groups significantly while offering limited value to others.
Three risks for HR leaders to address
Lowmaster identified three primary risks associated with AI use by early career talent. The first is increased errors caused by limited judgment, such as security vulnerabilities in software code or fabricated information in legal documents, which can expose organizations and customers to harm.
The second risk involves reduced opportunities to build experience. As AI automates tasks or reduces the need for junior support, early career employees may miss critical on-the-job learning, limiting the development of judgment needed to use AI responsibly.
The third risk is a weakened pipeline for senior and specialized roles. Gartner said demand for advanced roles has grown faster than the supply of experienced professionals, raising concerns about long-term talent shortages.
To address these gaps, Gartner recommends that CHROs focus on three tactics to help protégés build critical thinking and judgment skills quickly without relying on time or repetition of traditional development tasks.
"Build peer learning channels. Partner with learning and development teams to create forums where protégés can share challenges, GenAI successes, and best practices. Formalize infrastructure for expert knowledge transfer. Ensure protégés have ongoing access to more seasoned colleagues to learn from, even if they don’t work together regularly. Explore GenAI Simulators. Use GenAI-powered practice environments to help protégés build skills and judgment quickly in risk-free, realistic scenarios."
