USA 
United Kingdom
Business leaders across the US are bracing for the economic recession they say is being driven directly by White House trade policy and will threaten jobs and security.
In a flash survey conducted by CNBC following the latest tariffs announcement by Donald Trump, 69% of CEOs said they now expect a recession - with over half forecasting it will begin this year.
The results come as markets reel from a rapid 10% drop in the S&P 500 last week, triggered by the global tariffs announcement and a forceful retaliation from China.
Wall Street figures including JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and hedge fund manager Bill Ackman have joined a growing chorus warning of declining business confidence and rising inflation.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink was blunt in his assessment at a New York event: “Most CEOs I talk to would say we are probably in a recession right now.”
JPMorgan analysts echoed that view, raising the probability of a US recession this year to 60%, while Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell added that the tariffs were “significantly larger than expected,” with economic effects likely to include “higher inflation and slower growth.”
Among the 22 chief executives surveyed by CNBC, nearly four in ten said job cuts are likely this year, while another 14% said reductions are still under consideration.
Trump tariffs crash markets, CEOs brace for impact
The widespread uncertainty has sparked what many CEOs described as “war-rooming” scenarios - crisis planning exercises involving pricing adjustments, supply chain revisions, and inflation forecasting.
“We are controlling what we can,” one executive said. “But we can’t control the impact of tariffs on the consumer mindset, which could be significant.”
A majority of respondents expect to raise prices on goods and services, some by as much as 20%. Over 80% of those surveyed anticipate a new wave of inflation.
Beyond domestic costs, many CEOs expressed concern over rising hostility toward US brands overseas. Executives whose companies generate up to 45% of revenue from international markets warned of increasing anti-American sentiment and growing risk of consumer boycotts. One predicted a rise in global stagflation - simultaneous inflation and economic stagnation - triggered by trade friction.
“Tariffs on goods make headlines,” said one CEO, “but services - software, cloud, digital platforms - are now the economic engine. If foreign governments retaliate in kind, the impact will be severe.”
Doubts over long-term strategy
While the Trump administration has pitched tariffs as a catalyst for domestic manufacturing and long-term prosperity, many CEOs remain unconvinced. A full 59% of those surveyed said they do not believe the tariffs will prove beneficial over time. Only a quarter agreed with the administration’s claim that short-term pain will yield long-term gain.
“Construction is slowing, and capital projects are being delayed,” one CEO in the sector said, citing the rising cost of imported building materials.
The Future of Global Workforces | Trends and Predictions for 2025
Discover What’s Next for the Global Workforce in 2025
The world of work is changing fast - and organizations that stay ahead of the curve will be best positioned to attract, retain, and engage top talent.
In The Future of Global Workforces | Trends and Predictions for 2025, we explore the key shifts shaping how companies operate across borders. From rising employee expectations and evolving regulatory landscapes to game-changing advances in technology, the modern workforce is being redefined.
One standout trend? The continued evolution of remote and hybrid work. What began as a pandemic-era necessity has now become a non-negotiable for many employees - and a strategic opportunity for employers.
As Connie Diaz, Senior Director of HR at G-P, explains: “Remote work gives us the flexibility to better integrate work and life — and gives employers access to talent anywhere in the world.”
Download the report to uncover expert insights, explore emerging trends, and gain practical takeaways for building a future-ready, globally competitive workforce.
According to survey, 45% of respondents said any meaningful reshoring of production will take at least two to three years. In the meantime, the prevailing view is that policy inconsistency and trade unpredictability are harming confidence, freezing investment decisions and hurting the job market.
Former Federal Reserve official James Bullard warned that policy uncertainty itself could drive recessionary behaviour.
“Who wants to invest when you don’t know what the rules are going to be?” he asked on CNBC. “Major projects are all going to be delayed - all around the world - until there’s clarity.”
One CEO summarised the broader sentiment: “Without faith that our government knows what it is doing, it is impossible for businesses to thrive.”
For HR leaders it looks likely to mean disruption to staffing levels, realignment of compensation packages, layoffs and more, making planning difficult and testing resilience measures.
