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Despite high-profile return-to-office (RTO) announcements from major organisations including Amazon, JP Morgan and Starbucks, new data suggests remote working is not going to disappear from the US workplace anytime soon.
The latest Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU), conducted in February 2025 by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, indicates that remote work continues to account for roughly 20% of all paid workdays, with only minimal reductions anticipated in the coming year.
The study, which surveyed over 1,000 business executives across industries, found that just 12% of firms with hybrid or remote workers plan to implement an RTO mandate within the next 12 months. Even among those firms, many will not require a full-time return to the office, with more than a quarter mandating onsite attendance for only one to four days per week.
The findings challenge the narrative that widespread RTO policies are reshaping the work-from-home (WFH) landscape. The projected impact of these mandates is marginal, reducing the share of remote workdays from 21.2% to 20.8% - a decrease of just 0.4 percentage points.
Minimal impact of return-to-office policies
Despite corporate moves to bring employees back to the office, the overall prevalence of remote work remains stable. Comparing data from November 2024 to February 2025, the survey found little variance in the percentage of paid workdays performed remotely. While some firms are calling employees back to the office, others are increasing remote work arrangements as office leases expire, creating a balanced trend.
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The resilience of remote work is further outlined by the challenges businesses face in enforcing RTO policies. Data from the Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes reveals that just 44% of employees would comply with a full-time RTO mandate, while 14% would resign immediately and 41% would begin searching for alternative employment.
Remote working trends hold firm, even in downturns
Economic downturns have historically shifted employer-employee dynamics, raising questions about whether a recession could prompt a significant return to the office. However, the SBU survey suggests that even a major economic contraction would not substantially alter remote working arrangements.
When asked how they would respond to a hypothetical rise in unemployment from 4% to 8%, 85% of executives indicated their remote work policies would remain unchanged. Only 14% said they would reduce WFH opportunities, while a mere 1.7% suggested they might expand remote work.
Even under these conditions, the projected decrease in remote workdays amounts to just 0.9 percentage points, reinforcing the notion that remote work is now a fixed component of the modern employment landscape.
The findings suggest a permanent shift in work culture, where remote arrangements are seen as beneficial for reducing office space costs, enhancing productivity, and improving employee retention. As a result, despite ongoing debates about RTO policies, remote working seems here to stay in the US labor market.
